The People’s Republic of China’s state-run metals consultancy firm Beijing Antaike declared that the country’s alumina capacity would rise by 6.65 million metric tons per annum by the end of this year. Refineries in north, central, and northwest China are expected to lead the charge.
Industrial heavyweights Shandong and Henan are forecast to add 2 million metric tons per annum and 1 million metric tons per annum, respectively, to the country’s capacity, while Shanxi Province will add 2.6 million metric tons per annum and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region will chip in another 500 thousand metric tons per annum.
Alumina capacity is forecast to rise slightly less in 2018, as Antaike forecasts a rise of 5.7 million metric tons for the year. Shandong will again lead the way with an addition of 2 million metric tons per annum, Shanxi will be good for another 1.8 million metric tons per annum, Guizhou will pitch in 1.6 million more metric tons per annum, and Sichuan will add another 300 thousand metric tons per annum.
Alumina output is forecast to total 67.8 million metric tons this year, increasing by 6.9% to 72.5 million metric tons in 2018. Alumina supply is expected to be 71.4 million metric tons this year, increasing to 76.5 million metric tons next year.
Imported alumina is expected to total 3.6 million metric tons this year, followed by an 11% increase next year to 4 million metric tons. The alumina surplus is estimated to total 160,000 metric tons this year, increasing to a total of 1.34 million metric tons next year.
Alumina demand is expected to rise from 71.24 million metric tons this year to 75.16 million metric tons in 2018, according to Antaike. They credit the forecast increase in demand to rising output in recent years.
Antaike placed China’s refined aluminium output at 32.65 million metric tons last year, a 6% increase year-on-year. The consultancy firm calculated a compound output growth rate of 9.2% during the years of 2014 through 2016.